Russia. Marshall makes the point that the Russians are vulnerable in a number of ways. European plain provides no protection. Their ports freeze over. Their land mass is huge but their numbers are relatively small--smaller than Nigeria and Pakistan, for example. The annexation of the Crimea totally predictable--Putin sees loss of Crimea as an existential threat. Geopolitics pre-eminent. Very interesting book. A gift from Marian for Christmas, and a perfect book for my tastes!